Questo sito contribuisce alla audience di

Intervista a Dragan Pavlovic (3)

Montenegro, Macedonia e Bosnia

8) The Slavic Macedonians are Bulgarians? Does there exist a Macedonian
identity
?

They are as much Bulgarians as they are Serbs.
I am convinced that “nation”
is a politically determined notion.
Hence the question who is really what,
is political one, having nothing to do with the human essence.
There are
minorities in all countries all over the world. Some exercise strong ethnic
pressures with their high birth rates, and the political situation may make
them either integrate (assimilate), or go for territorial secession.

Macedonian national feeling exists, but may be killed, or revived.
The new
nations are vulnerable.

9) What’s going on in Montenegro? Will it split from Yugoslavia?

For social events predictions are of very limited value. Some Montenegrin politicians do not see much reason to stay attached to the “challenged state“, particularly if encouraged (I mean bribed) by the West.
The “ethnic state” principle could be brought there as well and Albanian rebellion is to be expected.
These are “inner” mechanisms that destabilise a state.
Outer mechanisms, which are used by USA in the Balkans, following a crisis
induction, could be used in Montenegro and Macedonia.

By promoting “ethnic state” principles and not “just state” principles, crisis is further maintained and the rulers who resist obviously become increasingly popular in the “challenged” state, and by being considered irreplaceable, are stigmatized as undemocratic (just the opposite to the Popperian “replaceability principle” of the rulers).

These rulers themselves are then
stigmatised as criminals (the opposite to the “philosophers rulers” of Plato).
As a result the “challenged state” is declared an undemocratic state ruled by the criminals.

10) Will Bosnia remain divided between two states under the same flag? Is it
realistic such an exchange: Yugoslavia gives up Kosovo and receives the Serbian Bosnia?

If Yugoslavia gives up SOME parts of Kosovo - yes, this is possible. But we are still far away from a peaceful harbour, because exactly what NATO does not want is to force Albanians to accept a partition.
If it is true that
those are the actions and not words that disclose political desires, the last 10 years of Balkan conflicts demonstrate that political desire of the West was to completely ethnically cleanse the Serbs from Croatia (Krajina),
Western Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo and Metohia
.

All agreements were achieved by force and are, of course, according to Vienna convention,
invalid. (including the Dayton Agreement - and that is why Mr. Milosevic, even though he signed it, is not bound to recognise the ICTY).
Also, it does not seem that the “states”, particularly Bosnia, repose on terms agreed by
all sides. However, establishment of “crisis maintenance - a hot spot” in the Balkans, was probably undeclared objective of American engagement in Europe.
This strategy is by definition not in favour of fair agreements.

Consequently, even if this what you suggest would be a fair agreement, it will probably not take place.
If the concept of “ethnic state” prevails over the concept of “just state”, the frontiers of European states will probably
be challenged much earlier then we could possibly imagine
.